In this paper, Gerben de Zwart and colleagues measure the economic value of information derived from macroeconomic variables and from technical trading rules for emerging markets currency investments. The analysis is based on a sample of 21 emerging markets with a floating exchange rate regime over the period 1997-2007 and explicitly accounts for trading restrictions on foreign capital movements by using non-deliverable forward data. The researchers document that both types of information can be exploited to implement profitable trading strategies. In line with evidence from surveys of foreign exchange professionals concerning the use of fundamental and technical analysis, they find that combining the two types of information improves the risk-adjusted performance of the investment strategies.

Participants

  • Gerben
    Role: Faculty
    Reference type: Co-written by

Media Outlets

  • Journal of International Money and Finance (via Science Direct) (Scientific or industry journal)