Lotus 1-2-3 was released in 1983, and by 1989 about half of US accountants used spreadsheets at work. Using US labour market data for 1979 to 1993, Dr Peter compares accountants with similar professions. "After 1983, accountants' hourly pay fell behind that of comparable professions by about 2 to 7 percent, depending on the comparison group," he says. "Their pay still rose in money terms and the profession kept growing. What they lost was part of their pay advantage, and the loss was largest for older and more experienced accountants."
"Spreadsheets did far less than today's AI systems, and this episode does not predict who will gain or lose from AI," he adds. "It does give us a well-measured case of what happened when a technology took over part of accountants' work. That is a useful benchmark for studying what AI does and does not change in the profession now."
Dr Peter's research examines how changes in the information environment affect corporate behaviour, professional labour markets and the organisation of economic activity. The project is ongoing and will conclude in 2027.
About the Microsoft AI Economy Institute
The AI Economy Institute (AIEI) is Microsoft's flagship thinktank dedicated to shaping an inclusive and trustworthy AI economy. Launched in 2025, AIEI supports independent, policy-relevant research on how artificial intelligence is reshaping productivity, labour markets, education systems, and economic opportunity.
AIEI builds a network of scholars and convenes that network with Microsoft subject-matter experts to explore how AI is transforming work, education, and productivity, and to make this knowledge available to policymakers, educators, and leaders. Through calls for proposals, workshops, and global partnerships, the Institute brings together researchers, international organisation specialists, business leaders, and policymakers to address the economic and social transformations brought by AI.
All AIEI-supported research is conducted independently. Findings represent the views of the researchers and do not represent the views of Microsoft.
